FOOTBALL: A quick guide to the playoff scenarios in Class A East
I won't go through all 64 possible outcomes of this weekend's games in the Pine Tree Conference Class A. We also don't know who's playing who just yet in the first round. But we do know where the games are:
--Lawrence, Bangor, Lewiston and Skowhegan have clinched the top four spots, and home games in the first round.
--Lawrence clinches the No. 1 spot with a win. With a loss to Messalonskee, Lawrence will root for Brewer to beat Bangor, Cony to beat Oxford Hills and Mt. Ararat to beat Brunswick. Any one of those should enable Lawrence to hold on to the top spot.
--If Bangor, Mt. Ararat, Messalonskee, Mt. Blue and Lewiston all win, then Lewiston and Bangor will be tied in Crabtree points.
--If all those happen and Cony wins, then Lawrence is in first and Bangor and Lewiston are tied for second place.
--If all those happens and Oxford Hills wins, then Lawrence, Bangor and Lewiston are all tied for first place.
--According to the Maine Principals' Association football bulletin, head-to-head competition is the first tie-breaker, followed by Heal points, division record within the conference, overall record and a coin toss.
--While Mt. Ararat can't move up to fourth, the Eagles could easily drop below fifth with a loss to Brunswick. Even Cony, which was closing in on a 30-game losing streak as recently at late September, could move up to the fifth spot.
--The winner of the Cony-Oxford Hills playoff game is in. The loser may be out.
--Brunswick could make the playoffs even with a loss and a 2-6 record. The reason is that the Dragons have had an extremely tough schedule. The Dragons faced Lewiston and Edward Little (who will end up a combined 8-8), Cony and Oxford Hills (who will end up a combined 7-9), Lawrence (7-0), Bangor (6-1), Mt. Blue (3-4) and Mt. Ararat (4-3). Their opponents are a combined 33-23 (.589) entering the week.
--Messalonskee can only make the playoffs with a win over Lawrence.
--I will update this blog Friday night with a list of possibilities for Saturday.