We are now getting ready for the Eastern A quarter final games. I've been saying all year long that there is a lot of parity in Eastern A. I think that any of the teams that have made it to the quarter finals have legitimate chances to win the Eastern A championship. Here's my take on the quarter final games. (All games are scheduled to play on Friday Feb. 15th at the Augusta Civic Center).

Game 1 03:00 PM Cony #3 Brunswick #6

One of the things I did prior to writing this up was to look at the records of the teams that made it into the quarter finals against the other quarter final teams. Cony had a record of 5-1, while Brunswick had a record of 3-5. These two teams met twice during the regular season and Cony won each game by at least 10 points. I like Cony to win this game.

Brunswick likes to play an up tempo style of play. I think this plays into Cony's strength. I believe if Nokomis had beaten Brunswick that the style of play that Nokomis runs (a slow ball control offense) gives Cony more trouble then a fast paced game. Brunswick has the players to be successful in a slow down game as with Baecher and Artis they have two of the tallest players in Eastern A, so they definitely have a height advantage over all of their opponents when those two are on the floor.

However, in a fast paced game Artis seems to look a bit out of place and Cony took advantage of their ability to get open looks against Artis in their last game. In the last game they played, Kayla Belanger of Cony had an outstanding game and was able to hit 10-18 foot outside shots that helped Cony take the lead. If Brunswick is to have a chance to win this game they will need to play a complete 32 minute game, rather then two good quarters and two so-so quarters. Brunswick will also need to keep Baecher out of foul trouble and on the court as much as possible.

For Cony the offense will run through Mack and Pelkey. Cony will need to keep both Mack and Pelkey out of foul trouble and I expect that they won't get into foul trouble. Throughout her career Rachael Mack has been very good at playing within her abilities and staying out of foul trouble. This year Coach Vachon has made a deliberate decision to try to play with a very few subs. This seems to be paying off as the season has progressed and Cony is playing excellent team defense as we get ready to start the playoffs. Each player seems to have clear roles. Mackenze Dufour is the point guard and it seems to be her job on offense to bring the ball up court and set up the offense. Pelkey has become a good three point shooter and also drives well to the basket. Brittany Ford has done a good job at either handling the ball or shooting three pointers. Mack is the big inside player for Cony and she has also done a very nice job on defense. Belanger has done a nice job as developing into another scoring option at the forward spot. Generally the first players (and often the only players) off the bench are Courtney Dufour (an excellent 3 point shooter) and Holly Parker - playing at a forward position.

Game 2 04:30 PM Morse #2 Skowhegan #9

Let's give Morse a little credit here. They have the best player in the KVAC this year in Jill Henrikson. In head to head competition with the other 7 teams in the quarter finals they are 7-3. When I've seen them play (against Cony and Lawrence) they did not look very good. However, they did close out the season well and beat Brunswick to wrap up the #2 spot in the Heal Points.

Skowhegan is 2-6 against the other quarter final teams. I think they have an excellent shot at upsetting Morse and this game may be a bit of a mystery as these teams did not play against each other during the regular season. Skowhegan has an advantage inside with stronger post players. The big question in this game will be how well Skowhegan does defending Henrikson, and whether other Morse players will be able to step up their game to take some of the pressure off of Henrikson.

I like Morse in this game. However, I also think that Coach Cowan of Skowhegan is an excellent coach, so don't be surprised if he comes up with an interesting strategy for the Indians.

Game 3 07:00 PM Bangor #4 Oxford Hills #5

Bangor was 3-3 against the other quarter final teams and Oxford Hills was 3-5. A question mark for Oxford Hills is the health of their team. From what I've read, a number of the Vikings were dinged up towards the end of the season and if they are not playing at full strength that will be a problem.

Bangor and Oxford Hills like to play a full court pressing defense for the entire game - so I see no reason to believe this won't be the case in this game. I expect this to be a low scoring game. Amy Hackett of Bangor is an excellent player. This is an interesting match up as I think in many ways these teams are mirror images of each other. These teams did not play against each other during the regular season.

I think Bangor will win this one.

Game 4 08:30 PM Lawrence #1 Messalonskee #8

This is a very intriguing match up. Lawrence enters this game with a 7-1 record against quarter final opponents while Messalonskee was 2-8. However these two teams played each other twice during the regular season. The last game they played was won by only 2 points by Lawrence and Messalonskee had an excellent chance to send the game into overtime, or win the game as they had the ball and were down by 1 with about 30 seconds to go.

However, I don't think that Messalonskee will be able to steal this game. I'm sure that coach Beckwith will have an excellent game plan that will give the Bulldogs problems. Lawrence has a very strong core starting group that plays very well together. I think they have been playing excellent defense and as the season has progressed Carly Perry has become a good three pointer shooter. With her development as an offensive threat, there isn't a single player on Lawrence that can be overlooked on defense.

Messalonskee has had problems playing defense and keeping out of foul trouble. Due to their aggressive nature they have a tendency to over play the ball handler and this often leaves a player open if the Eagles can't create a turnover. Any of the Lawrence players can score so if they are given open shots they will take them and odds are pretty good that they will hit them.

I liked the offense that Messalonskee used in their last game against Lawrence. Spreading the floor and creating opportunities for Hannah Dexter to drive to the basket was very effective. At times the Messalonskee players make some of the prettiest passes on offense that I have seen. However, they also are prone to turnovers. I just don't think at this time that the young Eagles (none of their players are seniors) will be able to overcome the experience and poise of the Bulldogs.

So I'm picking Lawrence in this game.

(For what it's worth this was also posted on mbr.org) - I also agree with Matt about people posting with their actual name.

I'm anxious to hear what your predictions are for the Eastern B at Bangor. Particularly Erskine vs Caribou.