GIRLS BASKETBALL: Western C tournament predictions
This is the space where I give my predictions on the Western C girls quarterfinals. Before we get to that, it's worth talking about why the Heal points system doesn't work, and why the Maine Principals' Association needs to fix it.
To begin with, the Heal points system would work great IF all teams played each other. It doesn't work at all when teams from different league are in the same class.
The MPA has a hard cutoff rule they use for determining classes for basketball teams. They review these numbers periodically, so some teams which are right around the cutoffs bounce back and forth between two classes (Kents Hill is one example).
So this season, teams like Hebron and Hyde were moved from Class D to Class C. Unfortunately (and the MPA should have addressed this problem), they were left with very few options for scheduling other Class C teams. This, in turn, screws up the Heal points system, so Hebron ends up fourth and Hyde ends up fifth in the final standings, while Mt. Abram, a better team than both, is in sixth place.
It's worth asking why Hebron and Hyde are in Class C to begin with. According to the programs put out by the MPA, Hebron has 220 students and Hyde has 215. Buckfield, which is competing in the Class D tournament, has 213 students. No, that's not a typo.
Enough about that, because the problem has gone on for years and probably won't be addressed now. As promised, here's a look at the Western C games, all of which will be played Tuesday:
No. 3 Waynflete vs. No. 6 Mt. Abram: Waynflete is another team which couldn't find enough Class C opponents. In this case, those other games will raise a few eyebrows. The Flyers lost to Lake Region -- the No. 1 seed in Western B -- by seven points. They also played Fryeburg -- the No. 5 seed in Western B -- and Waynflete won by 22. So this is a darn good team. Waynflete can score inside and outside, and has pretty much everything but depth. I know Waynflete had a poor shooting game in Augusta last year and got knocked out in the first round, while Mt. Abram made its magical run through the tournament. Mt. Abram is a very good team, and would be higher than No. 6 if the MPA put a good system in place for determining the seeds, but I'm picking Waynflete.
No. 2 Monmouth vs. No. 10 Hall-Dale: Hall-Dale is the source of one of only two games Monmouth has lost this season. Hall-Dale is up and down, and did a great job of containing Monmouth star Jenn Lola in that game. The Mustangs won the rematch by 14, and with their overall depth and the way they're playing lately, I think they win this one too. But this is a case where the seeds are misleading, so I think the game will be close.
No. 4 Hebron vs. No. 12 St. Dom's: The winner of this game will need to step up in the tournament and prove it can play against the top teams. Hebron had two very close games with Gould, a team that was handled by Hall-Dale in the prelims. St. Dom's was overwhelmed by Waynflete. In this game, I'm going with St. Dom's.
No. 1 Madison vs. No. 9 Georges Valley: The Mountain Valley Conference is strong enough that the winner of this game should advance to the regional final. But this is hardly a "gimme" game for Madison. The Buccaneers played Madison tough in their one regular season meeting, trailing by just three after three quarters before eventually losing by 12. These are two of the most experienced teams in the tournament. Madison starts five seniors, while six of Georges Valley's top seven players are seniors. I'm picking Madison in what could end up being the closest game of the first round.